A cold front will finally move through Northern Utah late tomorrow (Tuesday). Now it won't actually be a "Deep Freeze" by climatological standards, but for this season it will sure seem like it. We'll have some of our first "below normal" days in months. Unfortunately, because of the big warmup today and Tuesday ahead of the front, the sudden drop of temperatures (and refreeze) will likely create some pretty terrible ski conditions. And it doesn't look like there will be enough moisture or lift to produce any substantial snowfall. At "best" we'll maybe get a little dust on crust action. The skiing should improve in time for the weekend, though, as we warm back up and return to spring skiing conditions.
You're yes and you're no, blah blah something like that go the lyrics of a pop song I've heard on the radio, but it applies so well to the weather I think. This week we'll have continued sunny warm temperatures Monday and clear skies into Tuesday. Southerly flow and sun on Tuesday will give us a run at record warm temperatures Tuesday afternoon. The weather will change sometime on Tuesday afternoon, first noticable by a shift in the wind, followed by clouds (beautiful sunset alert!) but not serious convective clouds that will lead to snow accumulation in the mountains. That will have to wait until Wednesday night and into Thursday morning when the Cottonwoods might pick up a few inches.
The GFS wants to dump 8" at Alta because in that model the storm sets up in a more organized fashion. The ECMWF has what I think is much more realistic for this season, a disorganized mess that results in only a few inches of snow. Honestly in either case, after all this warmth the cold and clouds will likely make the skiing terrible and icy until it warms up again next week. Though with the small chance it does dump in the northern Wasatch, with the cold it might just last long enough to get skiied on Friday, so look out for that.
The warm, dry weather will continue through Tuesday. The storm that Matt mentioned for Tuesday now looks to see its presence felt on Wednesday morning. Unfortunately it still looks like we will be lucky to get a few inches out of it. A decent cold front will roll through as well on Wednesday morning, bring temperatures near or below average for this time of year. This pattern doesn't really please anybody I guess. If it isn't gonna snow it might as well be 70 degrees.
Uncertainty is high with this, but the current GFS run has another weak front coming into Utah on Thursday with a higher likelihood of accumulating snow. Freezing level would be quite low. Don't bank on it right now though.
Not much to add to yesterday's post by Jeff - the forecast still anticipates very warm temperatures over the weekend with highs in the mid-40s at even the highest ski areas. Westerly winds on Saturday will gust over 40mph on ridgelines, making for a relatively underwhelming skiing experience as the surface melts quite quickly even through the overnight hours. Through Monday, expect the snowpack to continue to diminish as temperatures struggle to get below freezing.
The GFS likes a few inches of snow falling (perhaps starting as rain at some low-elevation bases) Tuesday through the overnight hours, but we are likely to be on the southern edge of the moisture, resulting in a feast or famine scenario looking this far out (some model runs have us getting no precipitation at all). Keep an eye on the blog for better guidance through the weekend.
Looking farther out we expect renewed ridging through the end of next week, although we are not currently anticipating temperatures reaching quite the heights they will this weekend. Another system is projected for a week from Monday, perhaps more dynamically impressive than we've seen recently...but that's looking pretty far out.
Well nothing new to report today. Still expecting very warm and dry conditions this weekend. Unfortunately I dont think the skiing will be very good because the new snow will just turn to slush and there won't be any corn. It will be also be quite windy.
The models are hinting at a cooler and more active pattern next week, especially to our north. Perhaps we will get a little snow out of this change, but nothing major.
Overall I am pretty pessimistic as we head into the bottom of the 9th of the ski season. No big storms on the horizon and nothing to suggest big storms will come in April (also nothing to suggest they won't come except of course, persistence). Looks like we are going to lose this one.
On a side note, I went backcountry skiing last night and was amazed at how good the skiing was. Hopefully many of you were able to enjoy this past storm since maybe it was our last...